Publications

​ ​​​Co-authors: Arvind Krishnamurthy and Charles-Henri Weymuller

We propose a novel measure, "Liquidity Mismatch Index (LMI)," to gauge the mismatch between the market liquidity of assets and the funding liquidity of liabilities for the banking sector. LMI can be used for macro-prudential liquidity stress test, and for predicting cross-sectional bank risk. The outperformance of LMI than Basel III's LCR, NSFR results from the time-varying liquidity sensitivity weights which are driven by market prices.
​ ​​Co-authors: Thomas Philippon and Alexi Savov.      Media: -Bloomberg, New York Times 
​The finance industry has grown, financial markets have become more liquid, information technology has been revolutionized. But have financial market prices become more informative? 

Co-author: Liuren Wu
This paper examines the capability of firm fundamentals in explaining the cross-sectional variation of CDS spreads. 

Co-authors: Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Robert Goldstein, and Jean Helwege 
Reduced form models of default that attribute a large fraction of credit spreads as compensation for credit event risk typically preclude the most plausible economic justification for such risk to be priced, namely, a ``contagious" response of the market portfolio during the credit event. 
​ ​Co-author: Shang-Jin Wei
Strong property rights institutions tend to weaken the sovereign transfer risk, whereas contracting institutions (protection of creditor rights or minority shareholder rights) do not matter.

Co-authors: Eric Ghysels and Jonathan Wright
​We examine the relationship between MIDAS and Kalman filter state space models applied to mixed frequency data. 

Working Papers

​ We investigate both the time-series and cross-sectional variation in the CDS-bond basis, which measures the difference between the CDS spread and cash-bond implied credit spread, for a large sample of individual firms during the financial crisis. We test several possible explanations for the violation of the arbitrage relation between cash bond and CDS contract that would, in normal conditions, drive the basis to zero. Our findings do not uncover a clear single explanatory factor for the anomaly. Rather they point towards several drivers related to funding risk, counterparty risk and collateral quality that force the individual bond basis into negative territory at different phases of the crisis.

Benchmark models which exogenously specify equity dynamics cannot explain the large spread in prices between put options written on individual banks and options written on the financial sector index during the financial crisis. However, theoretical considerations require that equity dynamics be determined endogenously and exhibit a “leverage effect,” which
increases put prices by fattening the left tail of the distribution. This leverage effect is larger for puts on individual stocks than for puts on the index, thus increasing the basket-index spread. Time-series and cross-sectional variation in the leverage effect explains option prices well.

We investigate the cross-sectional determinants of corporate bonds and find that downside risk is the strongest predictor of future bond returns. We also introduce common risk factors based on the prevalent risk characteristics of corporate bonds -- downside risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk -- and find that these novel bond market factors have economically and statistically significant risk premia, which cannot be explained by the long-established stock and bond market factors. We further show that these newly proposed risk factors outperform all other models considered in the literature in explaining the returns of the industry-sorted and size/maturity-sorted portfolios of corporate bonds.

Chengtou bonds -- urban construction and investment bonds, backed mostly by land sales, are the major source of financing for Chinese local governments. We find that one standard deviation increase in local real estate GDP -- as the main growth engine countrywide -- corresponds to about 8.6% decrease in Chengtou bond excess yields. Political risk, a novel measure based on the anti-corruption campaign in China, has a significant negative effect on Chengtou bond prices. However, conditional on high corruption level, real estate GDP actually elevates Chengtou bond yields; only low corruption provinces enjoy low financing costs with high real estate GDP.

The European government bond lending market, as a core short-term funding market, not only facilitates short-selling, but also plays a unique role in allowing borrowers access to safe assets in market stress, especially with relatively low-quality noncash collateral. This feature is important since it increases the velocity of safe assets, and hence alleviates the pressure of the safe assets shortage. We provide strong evidence that safe assets have higher demand, higher borrowing cost, and higher usage of noncash collateral during the stressed market conditions. We also show that policy interventions by central banks impact the government bond lending market, and help reduce safe asset shortages by increasing confidence in non-safe bonds and by returning sought-after safe assets to the market.
​
  • Do Distributional Characteristics of Corporate Bonds Predict Their Future Returns? (with Turan Bali and Quan Wen)
  • We find a significantly positive (negative) relation between volatility (skewness) and the cross-section of corporate bond returns, whereas kurtosis does not make a robust incremental contribution to the predictability of future bond returns. The risk-adjusted return spreads in volatility (skewness) sorted portfolios represent compensation for differences in the level of idiosyncratic volatility (idiosyncratic skewness) and differential exposure to the common idiosyncratic volatility factor in the bond market. We also show that the new risk factors based on the distributional moments of bond returns represent an important source of common return variation missing from the long-established stock and bond market factors.​

  • The Microstructure of Chinese Government Bond Market, (with Michael Fleming, and Casidhe Horan)
Although China now has one of the largest government bond markets in the world, the market has received relatively little attention and analysis. We describe the history and structure of the market and assess its functioning. We find that trading in individual bonds was historically sparse but has increased markedly in recent years. We find also that certain announcements of macroeconomic news, such as China’s producer price index (PPI) and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), have significant effects on yields, even when such yields are measured at a daily level. Despite the increased activity in the market, we are able to reject the null hypothesis of market efficiency under two different tests for four of the most actively traded bonds.

          Media: -Asia Week Guide article, The Art Newspaper, 
We analyze two reasons for export prices to be different across markets, namely quality differentiation and variable markups, and attempt to parse their relative importance and some of their underlying drivers. To overcome the substantial measurement issues in this task, we consider a particular industry as a special case: Chinese fine art. The simplicity of the supply-side of art vis-a-vis marginal cost and the wealth of data on its quality characteristics makes it possible to separately identify the markup and quality components of international relative prices for Chinese artworks. Through this lens, we trace the process of internationalization of Chinese art since the year 2000 and uncover a rich set of facts. We find strong support for quality sorting into international markets at both the level of artist and artwork, as well as substantial markup differences across destinations. Using a structural model of endogenous quality choice by Feenstra and Romalis (2012), we argue that much of the international quality premium is driven by specific distribution costs (whether physical or informational) rather than destination-specific preferences for quality.
​ We find a significantly positive (negative) relation between volatility (skewness) and the cross-section of corporate bond returns, whereas kurtosis does not make a robust incremental contribution to the predictability of future bond returns. The risk-adjusted return spreads in volatility (skewness) sorted portfolios represent compensation for differences in the level of idiosyncratic volatility (idiosyncratic skewness) and differential exposure to the common idiosyncratic volatility factor in the bond market. We also show that the new risk factors based on the distributional moments of bond returns represent an important source of common return variation missing from the long-established stock and bond market factors.​

Policy Report